企业破产预测实证模型评述

随着计量方法的改进,对企业破产的实证预测,重新成为理论界和实务界关注的重点。40年来代表性的破产预测实证模型包括专家评分系统、分离模型、多元分离模型、Logit模型、生存分析模型、神经网络模型等。对于每种模型的假设前提、所选择的解释变量、预测能力以及可能的局限性进行评述,可以得出结论:多元分离模型虽然传统,但实用性最强;分时风险模型因为改善了分离模型的静态性,预测准确率也更高,是目前应用最广泛的模型。     

基于多种模型的福建省入境游客量预测

准确的旅游需求预测可以为政府和产业部门的旅游决策提供重要信息。根据福建省1985-2010年的26年入境游客量统计数据,利用移动平均、指数平滑、GM（1,1）、ARIMA（1,1,1）和GM-ARIMA 5种模型对未来5年入境游客量进行尝试性预测。通过对拟合过程的比较,发现以上5种模型均适用于福建省入境游客量的预测,但以GM-ARIMA组合模型拟合效果最佳,二次移动平均模型拟合效果最差。预测结果表明,至2015年福建省入境游客量大约可达520～580万人次。另外,研究结果支持目前国际上普遍认同的组合模型可以有效提高预测精度的观点。     

The interactive trade decision-making research: An application case of novel hybrid MCDM model

The changing structure of international trade practices has caused reciprocal effect between the factors of politics, diplomacy, military, and technology over the past twenty years. In particular, the new burgeoning countries expect to acquire extra advantages such as technology or compensation from other parties during this interactive trade.     

建筑施工中钢筋滚压直螺纹连接技术的简要论述

钢筋滚压直螺纹连接技术是我国近期开发成功的新一代钢筋机械连接技术,这种技术综合了套筒挤压连接和锥螺纹连接的优点,确保接头能充分发挥母材的强度——即钢筋等强技术效应,被广泛应用于现代建筑工程中,现针对其在建筑工程中的应用及其具体施工工艺进行探讨。     

江苏区域农村中小企业借贷特征比较——基于江苏省的调查

本文在对江苏农村中小企业融资现状调查基础上,分析了苏南、苏中、苏北地区农村中小企业金融需求特征,并运用多无回归分析探讨了影响农村中小企业金融需求的主要因素。本文研究认为,农村中小企业金融需求意愿受到抑制,但各区域经济发展程度不同,农村中小企业需求的影响因素存在差异。经济发达地区农村中小企业借贷主要与企业资产规模、企业年龄相关,而在经济较为落后的地区,企业资产规模、企业年龄与企业盈利能力等因素都会影响到农村中小企业的借贷。     

基于竞争优先权理论的企业效率测评模型研究

关于企业效率,目前学者们大多通过DEA模型来测评企业某一时点的技术效率,而对企业整体效率,以及效率可持续性的研究较为少见。本文基于竞争优先权理论,建立起产品成本、质量、服务、创新和交货速度等竞争优先权要素与现金流量指标之间的关联。以391家制造业上市公司为样本,利用现金流量指标,建立了多元线性回归的企业效率测评模型,并对模型进行了检验。研究发现：资产现金流量回报率指标具有较强的区分企业效率高低的能力,并且通过观察该指标连续4年的变化趋势能够预测企业效率的可持续性。     

Risk-free bond prices in incomplete markets with recursive multiple-prior utilities

We consider an exchange economy under uncertainty, in which agents' utility functions may be recursive and the expected utility calculation may be based on multiple priors. The utility functions representing risk attitudes and intertemporal substitution are negative exponential functions. These utility functions and the access to asset markets may arbitrarily differ across agents. We prove that the risk-free bond price goes down (and the interest rate goes up) monotonically as the market incompleteness diminishes. We also find the range of equilibrium bond prices that depends on the primitives of the economy but not on the structures of asset markets.     

物流无缝连接及其实现

讨论了无缝连接的内涵,并从信息、设备、平台、法规等四个方面探讨了无缝连接的外延,研究了实现无缝连接的条件,并给出了实现无缝连接的方法。     

Testing parameter constancy in linear models against stochastic stationary parameters

This paper considers testing parameter constancy in a linear model when the alternative is that a subset of the parameters follows a stationary vector autoregressive process of known finite order. This kind of a linear model is only identified under the alternative, which usually precludes finding a test statistic with an analytic null distribution. In the present situation, however, it is still possible to derive a test statistic with an asymptotic chi-squared distribution under the null hypothesis and this is done in the paper. The small-sample properties of the test statistic are investigated by simulation and found statisfactory. The test retains its power when the alternative to parameter constancy is a random walk parameter process.     

Religion, Opportunism, and International Market Entry Via Non-Equity Alliances or Joint Ventures

One challenge that globalization has brought to business is that firms, as they expand their market globally through cross-border alliances, need to deal with partner firms from countries of different religious background. The impact of a country’s dominant religion on its firms’ international market entry mode choices has not been examined in traditional approaches. Focusing on hypothesizing the influence of Christian beliefs and atheism (i.e., the absence of belief in any deities), this research aims to fill the gap by exploring religion’s role in providing moral restraint on managers’ propensity for opportunism, which in turn affects these managers’ choices of their firms’ international market entry via non-equity alliances or joint ventures. A study of 22,156 cross-border alliances formed in 48 industries world-wide over 9 years provides new insight toward understanding religion’s influence on firms’ international market entry mode decisions through the ethical dimension of strategic leadership. This article would fit best under the International Management section for reviewing purposes.